{"id":11360,"date":"2025-09-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mandiri.test\/uncategorized-id\/global-market-commentary-agustus-2025\/"},"modified":"2026-01-19T16:36:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T09:36:13","slug":"global-market-commentary-agustus-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.toffeedev.com\/mandiri-new\/artikel\/global-market-commentary-agustus-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Market Commentary : Agustus 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bulan Agustus menandai eskalasi lebih lanjut dalam perseteruan antara Trump dan The Fed. Presiden AS bergerak untuk memberhentikan Gubernur Lisa Cook atas dugaan penipuan hipotek dan kelalaian berat. Trump juga menyebutkan bahwa jika Powell tidak mendukung pemangkasan suku bunga, Dewan Gubernur seharusnya mengambil alih keputusan kebijakan. Meskipun terdapat potensi dampak negatif jangka panjang jika pasar meragukan independensi The Fed, isu ini justru memperkuat pandangan konsensus akan adanya pemangkasan suku bunga pada rapat 17 September, sebesar 25 bps. Per akhir Agustus, peluang pemangkasan suku bunga tercatat di atas 89%.<\/p>\n

Dugaan pemangkasan suku bunga semakin diperkuat oleh nada optimistis Powell dalam pidatonya di Jackson Hole, dengan menyinggung risiko yang terus berkembang di pasar tenaga kerja, yang dapat menjadi justifikasi untuk peninjauan kembali kebijakan pada September. Kekhawatiran awal Powell terhadap tarif berbasis inflasi juga mereda karena ia berharap dampaknya hanya bersifat sementara. Kekhawatiran inflasi khususnya saat ini masih terkendali, dengan indikator inflasi pilihan The Fed, yakni PCE<\/strong>, meningkat 2,6% yoy, sesuai dengan konsensus.<\/p>\n

Data ekonomi AS semakin menguat pada kuartal II-2025 dengan pertumbuhan PDB tahunan sebesar 3,3%, di atas konsensus 3,0%. Pemangkasan suku bunga di September, disertai inflasi yang stabil serta PDB yang tangguh, tampaknya mengindikasikan potensi reli di pasar saham. Menurut kami, ekonomi AS akan semakin menunjukkan pertumbuhan stabil dengan inflasi yang relatif bertahan, meskipun moderat.<\/p>\n

Di seberang Pasifik, Tiongkok mempertahankan suku bunga acuan pada 1Y LPR di 3% dan 5Y LPR di 3,5%. Dengan langkah ini, PBOC tampaknya mengisyaratkan bahwa pemerintah menginginkan stimulus ekonomi yang lebih terarah dibandingkan sekadar menciptakan sentimen positif secara umum terhadap perekonomian. Kami menilai bahwa stabilnya suku bunga ini juga dapat mencerminkan risiko perang tarif AS\u2013Tiongkok yang perlahan menurun.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rekomendasi Produk<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
REKSA DANA SAHAM<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
MGSED A<\/a><\/td>\nReksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah.
\nDengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MASED A<\/a><\/td>\nReksa Dana MASED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Asia di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah.
\nDengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Info Lebih Lanjut<\/h3>\n

Hubungi Mandiri Investasi –\u00a0(021) 526 3505<\/a>
\nEmail Mandiri Investasi –\u00a0cs@mandiri-investasi.co.id
\nMandiri Investasi –\u00a0www.mandiri-investasi.co.id<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

DISCLAIMER<\/em>
\n
\nPendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eskalasi Trump\u2013The Fed mendorong ekspektasi pemangkasan suku bunga, memperkuat potensi reli pasar saham global.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7827,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[351,367],"tags":[346],"class_list":["post-11360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artikel","category-market-insights","tag-bahasa-indonesia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Market Commentary : Agustus 2025 - Mandiri Investasi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Eskalasi Trump\u2013The Fed mendorong ekspektasi pemangkasan suku bunga, memperkuat potensi reli pasar saham global.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Market Commentary : Agustus 2025 - 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