{"id":9899,"date":"2025-09-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mandiri.test\/uncategorized-id\/monthly-macro-review-aug-25\/"},"modified":"2026-01-19T16:36:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T09:36:53","slug":"monthly-macro-review-aug-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.toffeedev.com\/mandiri-new\/en\/market-update\/monthly-macro-review-aug-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Macro Review : Momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"post-full-content\">\n<div class=\"post-content\">\n<p>Pada bulan Agustus, pasar kembali diwarnai oleh sentimen positif, seperti pemotongan suku bunga oleh BI dan potensi lanjutannya, potensi pemotongan suku bunga oleh the Fed di September, dan tidak adanya eskalasi lanjutan perang tariff. Di sisi domestik, walaupun akhir bulan ditutup oleh gelombang protes besar di beberapa daerah, kami menyakini kondisi fundamental ekonomi Indonesia tetap solid. Dengan angka inflasi yang terkendali, PMI Manufacturing yang pulih secara gradual, dan sikap BI yang mendukung pertumbuhan, kami melihat adanya potensi reli lanjutan di IHSG.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"overview\">Overview<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Di bulan Agustus, pasar global semakin melihat adanya potensi pemotongan suku bunga AS oleh Fed di FOMC meeting 17 September 2025. Walaupun hal ini sudah mulai dibicarakan beberapa pekan sebelumnya, pidato Powell di Jackson Hole menjabarkan adanya risiko yang berkembang pada sisi tenaga kerja sehingga membuat The Fed mempertimbangkan adanya pergantian kebijakan pada meeting September mendatang. Mengenai kekhawatiran soal tariff, Powell juga mengatakan adanya harapan kalau risiko inflasi yang ditimbulkan akan bersifat temporer sehingga kebijakan moneter dapat tetap bersifat akomodatif.<\/p>\n<p>Di saat yang sama, AS juga mencatatkan ekonomi yang cukup stabil, dengan GDP 2Q25 tumbuh pada level 3,3% yoy, di atas konsensus 3,0% yoy. Dengan adanya kestabilan ekonomi dan naiknya potensi pemotongan bunga di September, kami memiliki pandangan positif untuk pasar ekuitas AS seiring mendekati tanggal rapat FOMC.<\/p>\n<p>Untuk Indonesia sendiri, perkembangan positif terus berlanjut. BI diluar ekspektasi kembali melakukan pemotongan suku bunga sebesar 25bps di bulan Agustus ke level 5%. Pemotongan ini dilakukan dalam rangka mendorong laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan gubernur BI memberikan gestur yang dovish.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"post-content\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"topic-of-discussion\">Topic of discussion<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Inflasi<\/li>\n<li>PMI Manufacturing dan Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen<\/li>\n<li>Data moneter<\/li>\n<li>Penjualan mobil dan motor<\/li>\n<li>Analisa kondisi makro ekonomi dan kondisi pasar modal<\/li>\n<li>Rekomendasi aset alokasi<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"rekomendasi\">Rekomendasi<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Di bulan Agustus 2025, kami melanjutkan rekomendasi komposisi alokasi asset sebesar 5% kas, 47,5% saham, dan 47,5% obligasi. Tingginya porsi saham kami pertahankan dari bulan sebelumnya karena prospek ekuitas yang semakin baik dengan potensi pemotongan suku bunga the Fed di September. Kami juga melihat lanjutan dari stabilisasi kondisi ekonomi dan politik global, dengan faktor seperti perang dagang AS-Tiongkok yang tidak mengalami eskalasi lanjutan.<\/p>\n<p>Dalam opini kami, pemotongan suku bunga The Fed pertama akan menguntungkan indeks saham AS, tetapi sentimen positif yang ditimbulkan dapat juga berlanjut ke indeks saham domestik. Untuk mendapat bagian dari potensi reli di indeks AS, kami merekomendasikan produk RD MGSED, yang memiliki nama-nama besar dari indeks tersebut, seperti Apple, Amazon, dan Alphabet. Untuk pasar domestik, kami selanjutnya merekomendasikan produk seperti RD FTSE ESG, RD MITRA dan RD ASEAN 5, karena produk-produk ini memiliki nama yang terdiversifikasi baik itu big-caps ataupun small-mid caps. Dalam kondisi sentimen yang lebih baik, kami berpendapat saham di luar big caps akan juga menyusul di reli lanjutan.<\/p>\n<p>Di luar pasar saham, kami dapat juga merekomendasikan produk obligasi kami, seperti RD MIDU yang memiliki durasi pendek dan membagikan dividen. Pandangan positif kami di pasar obligasi didorong oleh potensi kenaikan likuiditas di bulan September dan Oktober, dengan jatuh temponya obligasi pemerintah bernilai IDR77tn dan IDR107tn. Di tengah potensi lanjutan pemotongan suku bunga oleh BI, kami juga tetap menekankan bahwa produk pasar uang kami masih menarik, seperti RD MMUSD dan RD MIPU. Kami berpendapat suku bunga BI saat ini masih belum mencapai level terbawahnya, sehingga yield yang ditawarkan produk masih terbilang menarik. Hal ini didukung juga oleh inflasi yang kami perkirakan masih akan berlanjut rendah, sehingga produk pasar uang bisa menjadi alternatif stabil di atas gerusan inflasi yang juga lebih tahan terhadap volatilitas pasar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11835\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.toffeedev.com\/mandiri-new\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-at-10.28.44.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1736\" height=\"232\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<section class=\"post-full-content\">\n<div class=\"post-content\">\n<h2 id=\"rekomendasi-produk\">Rekomendasi Produk<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"saham\">Saham<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-cerdas-bangsa-micb-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa (MICB) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><br \/>\nSaham LQ45, Mayoritas saham kapitalisasi besar, dan Denominasi Rupiah<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-equity-asean-5-plus-asean-5\/\">Mandiri Investa Equity Asean 5 Plus (MANSEA5)<\/a><br \/>\nSaham domestik &amp; global, All cap fund, dan Denominasi Rupiah<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"saham-global\">Saham Global<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/syariah\/mandiri-global-sharia-equity-dollar-mgsed-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Global Sharia Equity Dollar (MGSED) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><br \/>\nSaham global, Denominasi USD, dan Kerjasama dengan JP Morgan AM<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-asia-sharia-equity-dollar-mased-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Asia Sharia Equity Dollar (MASED) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><br \/>\nSaham Asia dan Denominasi USD<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"index\">Index<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/indeks\/mandiri-indeks-ftse-indonesia-esg-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG (FTSEESG) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><br \/>\nSaham domestik, Denominasi Rupiah, Berorientasi ESG, dan Pengelolaan pasif<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/etf\/mandiri-etf-lq45\/\">Mandiri ETF LQ45 (XMLF)<\/a><br \/>\nTracking error rendah, Transaksi jual\/beli dapat di lakukan setiap saat, dan Nilai transaksi real time<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"pendapatan-tetap\">Pendapatan Tetap<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/mandiri-investa-dana-utama-midu\/\">Mandiri Investa Dana Utama (MIDU)<\/a><br \/>\nObligasi pemerintah &amp; korporasi, Pembagian dividen bulanan, dan Durasi: pendek (&lt; 4 tahun)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/investa-dana-dollar-mandiri-idaman\/\">Investa Dana Dollar Mandiri (IDAMAN)<\/a><br \/>\nObligasi pemerintah USD (INDON), Durasi menengah &#8211; panjang, dan Denominasi USD<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Campuran<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/syariah\/mandiri-investa-syariah-berimbang-misb\/\">Mandiri Investa Syariah Berimbang (MISB)<\/a><br \/>\nObligasi Syariah (Sukuk), Durasi pendek &#8211;\u00a0 menengah<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"pasar-uang\">Pasar Uang<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pasar-uang\/mandiri-investa-pasar-uang-mipu-a-2\/\">Mandiri Investa Pasar Uang (MIPU)<\/a><br \/>\nInstrumen Pasar Uang dengan segmen Jangka Pendek<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pasar-uang\/mandiri-money-market-usd-mmusd\/\">Mandiri Money Market USD (MMUSD)<\/a><br \/>\nInstrumen Pasar Uang dan Denominasi USD<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table class=\"table table-striped table-bordered\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>PRODUK<\/th>\n<th>3M PERFORMANCE<\/th>\n<th>YTD PERFORMANCE<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">Saham<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-cerdas-bangsa-micb-kelas-a\/\">MICB A<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+3.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">-2.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-equity-asean-5-plus-asean-5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ASEAN5<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+3.24%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">-4.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">Saham Global<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/syariah\/mandiri-global-sharia-equity-dollar-mgsed-kelas-a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MGSED A<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+8.44%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+9.73%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-asia-sharia-equity-dollar-mased-kelas-b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MASED B<\/a><\/td>\n<td>+8.13<\/td>\n<td>+9.15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">Indeks<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/indeks\/mandiri-indeks-ftse-indonesia-esg-kelas-a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FTSE ESG A<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+4.70%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+1.35%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/etf\/mandiri-etf-lq45\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">XMLF<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+4.34%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+1.47%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">Pendapatan Tetap<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/mandiri-investa-dana-utama-midu?utm_source=weekly-market-recap\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MIDU<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+3.46%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+7.89%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/investa-dana-dollar-mandiri-idaman\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IDAMAN<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">+2.73%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">+5.38%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">Campuran<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/syariah\/mandiri-investa-syariah-berimbang-misb\/?utm_source=weekly-market-recap\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MISB<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+9.63%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+12.63%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">Pasar Uang<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pasar-uang\/mandiri-investa-pasar-uang-mipu-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MIPU<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+1.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+3.26%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pasar-uang\/mandiri-money-market-usd-mmusd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MMUSD<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+0.76%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+2.21%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>*Data diatas adalah data per tanggal 19 September 2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Untuk membaca hal-hal yang terjadi di bulan Juni 2025 yang mempengaruhi ekonomi secara makro selengkapnya disini:<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"invest-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Finalised-v2_Monthly-Macro-Review-Aug25.pdf\">Baca Selengkapnya<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 id=\"info-lebih-lanjut\">Info Lebih Lanjut<\/h3>\n<p>Hubungi Mandiri Investasi &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"tel:0215263505\">(021) 526 3505<\/a><br \/>\nEmail Mandiri Investasi &#8211;\u00a0cs@mandiri-investasi.co.id<br \/>\nMandiri Investasi &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/\">www.mandiri-investasi.co.id<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>DISCLAIMER<\/em><br \/>\n<em><br \/>\nPendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Positive momentum: rate cuts, stable inflation, and Indonesia\u2019s solid fundamentals fueling potential market rally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,382],"tags":[365],"class_list":["post-9899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-update","tag-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monthly Macro Review : Momentum - Mandiri Investasi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Positive momentum: rate cuts, stable inflation, and Indonesia\u2019s solid fundamentals fueling potential market rally.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monthly Macro Review : Momentum - 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